Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Plots of cases

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
    • For total cases, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

Plots of deaths

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)

##                        state casesPerMillion
##  1:                 New York        11,426.0
##  2:               New Jersey         8,479.0
##  3:                Louisiana         4,846.0
##  4:            Massachusetts         4,668.0
##  5:              Connecticut         4,455.0
##  6:             Rhode Island         3,622.0
##  7:     District of Columbia         3,329.0
##  8:                 Michigan         2,915.0
##  9:             Pennsylvania         2,211.0
## 10:                 Delaware         2,130.0
## 11:                 Illinois         2,030.0
## 12:                 Maryland         1,783.0
## 13:                 Colorado         1,506.0
## 14:             South Dakota         1,481.0
## 15:                  Georgia         1,473.0
## 16:               Washington         1,464.0
## 17:                  Indiana         1,417.0
## 18:                  Vermont         1,230.0
## 19:              Mississippi         1,217.0
## 20:                  Florida         1,086.0
## 21:                   Nevada         1,078.0
## 22:                  Alabama           898.0
## 23:                Tennessee           891.0
## 24:            New Hampshire           890.0
## 25:                    Idaho           855.0
## 26:                     Utah           836.0
## 27:                 Missouri           832.0
## 28:                 Virginia           807.0
## 29:           South Carolina           763.0
## 30:               New Mexico           761.0
## 31:                     Ohio           719.0
## 32:               California           712.0
## 33:                     Iowa           678.0
## 34:                Wisconsin           665.0
## 35:                 Oklahoma           595.0
## 36:                    Maine           592.0
## 37:                    Texas           583.0
## 38:                  Arizona           581.0
## 39:                 Nebraska           565.0
## 40:                   Kansas           547.0
## 41:                 Kentucky           543.0
## 42:                 Arkansas           536.0
## 43:           North Carolina           520.0
## 44:             North Dakota           515.0
## 45:                  Wyoming           511.0
## 46:            West Virginia           412.0
## 47:                   Oregon           411.0
## 48:                   Alaska           407.0
## 49:                  Montana           388.0
## 50:                   Hawaii           377.0
## 51:                Minnesota           339.0
## 52:              Puerto Rico           326.0
## 53:           American Samoa            <NA>
## 54:                     Guam            <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands            <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands            <NA>
##                        state casesPerMillion

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

##                        state casesNewPerMillion
##  1:                 New York                466
##  2:               New Jersey                402
##  3:             Rhode Island                271
##  4:            Massachusetts                256
##  5:              Connecticut                234
##  6:     District of Columbia                186
##  7:             South Dakota                166
##  8:                 Michigan                121
##  9:                Louisiana                108
## 10:                 Delaware                107
## 11:             Pennsylvania                104
## 12:                 Maryland                101
## 13:                 Illinois                 97
## 14:                  Georgia                 79
## 15:              Mississippi                 76
## 16:                  Indiana                 64
## 17:                 Colorado                 56
## 18:            New Hampshire                 46
## 19:                     Iowa                 45
## 20:                 Virginia                 44
## 21:                     Ohio                 41
## 22:                  Alabama                 40
## 23:               New Mexico                 40
## 24:                 Missouri                 39
## 25:                 Nebraska                 38
## 26:                  Florida                 36
## 27:                     Utah                 33
## 28:               California                 32
## 29:           South Carolina                 31
## 30:                   Nevada                 30
## 31:                Tennessee                 29
## 32:                 Kentucky                 28
## 33:                    Texas                 28
## 34:             North Dakota                 27
## 35:               Washington                 26
## 36:                Wisconsin                 25
## 37:                  Arizona                 24
## 38:                   Kansas                 24
## 39:                    Maine                 24
## 40:                 Oklahoma                 24
## 41:           North Carolina                 21
## 42:            West Virginia                 18
## 43:                 Arkansas                 16
## 44:                Minnesota                 15
## 45:              Puerto Rico                 14
## 46:                    Idaho                 13
## 47:                   Oregon                 12
## 48:                  Wyoming                 12
## 49:                   Alaska                 10
## 50:                  Vermont                 10
## 51:                   Hawaii                  7
## 52:                  Montana                  6
## 53:           American Samoa               <NA>
## 54:                     Guam               <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands               <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands               <NA>
##                        state casesNewPerMillion

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)

##                        state deathsPerMillion
##  1:                 New York              626
##  2:               New Jersey              396
##  3:              Connecticut              272
##  4:                Louisiana              248
##  5:                 Michigan              209
##  6:            Massachusetts              180
##  7:     District of Columbia              114
##  8:             Rhode Island               99
##  9:                 Illinois               85
## 10:               Washington               77
## 11:                  Indiana               70
## 12:             Pennsylvania               67
## 13:                 Colorado               61
## 14:                  Georgia               57
## 15:                 Maryland               57
## 16:                  Vermont               56
## 17:                 Delaware               53
## 18:                   Nevada               46
## 19:              Mississippi               43
## 20:                     Ohio               33
## 21:                 Oklahoma               33
## 22:                Wisconsin               33
## 23:                  Florida               31
## 24:                 Kentucky               29
## 25:                  Alabama               27
## 26:                   Kansas               27
## 27:                 Missouri               27
## 28:            New Hampshire               25
## 29:               California               24
## 30:                 Virginia               24
## 31:                    Idaho               22
## 32:           South Carolina               21
## 33:                Tennessee               21
## 34:                  Arizona               20
## 35:                    Maine               20
## 36:               New Mexico               20
## 37:                     Iowa               19
## 38:              Puerto Rico               17
## 39:                Minnesota               16
## 40:                   Oregon               15
## 41:                    Texas               14
## 42:           North Carolina               13
## 43:                 Arkansas               12
## 44:                 Nebraska               12
## 45:             North Dakota               11
## 46:                   Alaska                9
## 47:             South Dakota                7
## 48:            West Virginia                7
## 49:                   Hawaii                6
## 50:                  Montana                6
## 51:                     Utah                6
## 52:                  Wyoming                3
## 53:           American Samoa             <NA>
## 54:                     Guam             <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands             <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands             <NA>
##                        state deathsPerMillion

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

##                        state deathsNewPerMillion
##  1:               New Jersey                  40
##  2:                 New York                  36
##  3:              Connecticut                  34
##  4:                Louisiana                  19
##  5:            Massachusetts                  19
##  6:                 Michigan                  16
##  7:     District of Columbia                  13
##  8:             Rhode Island                  10
##  9:                 Illinois                   7
## 10:             Pennsylvania                   7
## 11:                  Indiana                   6
## 12:                  Georgia                   4
## 13:                 Maryland                   4
## 14:                 Delaware                   3
## 15:              Mississippi                   3
## 16:                   Nevada                   3
## 17:                     Ohio                   3
## 18:                  Vermont                   3
## 19:                  Alabama                   2
## 20:               California                   2
## 21:                 Colorado                   2
## 22:                  Florida                   2
## 23:            New Hampshire                   2
## 24:               New Mexico                   2
## 25:                 Oklahoma                   2
## 26:                 Virginia                   2
## 27:               Washington                   2
## 28:                Wisconsin                   2
## 29:                  Arizona                   1
## 30:                    Idaho                   1
## 31:                     Iowa                   1
## 32:                   Kansas                   1
## 33:                 Kentucky                   1
## 34:                    Maine                   1
## 35:                Minnesota                   1
## 36:                 Missouri                   1
## 37:           North Carolina                   1
## 38:              Puerto Rico                   1
## 39:           South Carolina                   1
## 40:                Tennessee                   1
## 41:                    Texas                   1
## 42:                   Alaska                   0
## 43:                 Arkansas                   0
## 44:                   Hawaii                   0
## 45:                  Montana                   0
## 46:                 Nebraska                   0
## 47:             North Dakota                   0
## 48:                   Oregon                   0
## 49:             South Dakota                   0
## 50:                     Utah                   0
## 51:            West Virginia                   0
## 52:                  Wyoming                   0
## 53:           American Samoa                <NA>
## 54:                     Guam                <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands                <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands                <NA>
##                        state deathsNewPerMillion

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

##          county          state casesPerMillion rawRanking percentile
##  1:    New York       New York          75,610          1         99
##  2:    Rockland       New York          26,864          2         99
##  3: Westchester       New York          22,561          3         99
##  4:      Nassau       New York          20,467          4         99
##  5:      Blaine          Idaho          20,286          5         99
##  6:    Davidson      Tennessee           2,247        174         94
##  7:    Richland South Carolina           1,393        355         88
##  8:      Pierce     Washington           1,176        434         86
##  9:        York South Carolina             530       1072         65
## 10:      Orange     California             449       1257         59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

##        county          state deathsPerMillion rawRanking percentile
##  1:  New York       New York            5,300          1         99
##  2:  Randolph        Georgia            1,623          2         99
##  3:   Terrell        Georgia            1,407          3         99
##  4:  Mitchell        Georgia            1,006          4         99
##  5: Dougherty        Georgia            1,000          5         99
##  6:    Pierce     Washington               33        601         80
##  7:  Richland South Carolina               31        626         80
##  8:  Davidson      Tennessee               27        699         77
##  9:      York South Carolina               11       1002         68
## 10:    Orange     California                8       1049         66

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons